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Other IUSSP-Activities
IUSSP session on "Recent Trends in Demographic Modelling" at the 56th Conference of the International Statistical Institute
Lisbon, Portugal, 28 August 2007.
John Cleland organized this session on behalf of the Union; its main purpose was to expose to statisticians some of the more exciting current research conducted by demographers. Three papers were presented and a discussion of each was lead by Germán Rodriguez. Juha Alho presented a paper modelling the effect of demographic and economic uncertainty on fiscal sustainability. Initially stable population analysis was expanded to include the effect of stochastic economic productivity. Diverse demographic trends in Europe were then used to illustrate the difficulties in achieving accurate population forecasts. Contrary to conventional wisdom, it was shown that, in forecasting fiscal sustainability, demographic uncertainty is approximately as important as uncertain economic trends. Jan Hoem's paper applied an extension of piecewise-constant hazard regression to analyse jointly the transition to cohabitation or marriage using data from the Russian Federation and three eastern European countries. Large inter-country variations in the rise of cohabitation were apparent and the implications for the concept of the ''second demographic transition'' were discussed. In the final paper John McDonald showed how a Bayesian modelling framework could be used to generate estimates of place-to-place migration flows with associated measures of precision. The advantage of this approach includes its ability to deal with reported flows of varying quality and with missing data.
Papers:
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First unions in Bulgaria: a joint analysis of marital and non-marital union formation
Jan Hoem
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Modeling the effect of uncertain demographics on fiscal sustainability
Juha Alho
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Bayesian estimation of migration flows
John W. McDonald, Jonathan F. Forster, and Peter W. F. Smith
Joint Summer School of IUSSP and the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR):
The IUSSP and the Max Planck Institute are organising a joint Summer School
on Frontiers of Demographic Research on Mortality and Longevity. For further
information on this event please click here.
research topics. The target audiences are institutions and individual researchers around the world, from disciplines including demography, geography, anthropology, history, political science, ecology, biology, environmental studies as well as all others interested or actively involved in population and environment research. The project is jointly sponsored by the IUSSP and the International Human Dimensions of Global Change Programme (IHDP).
Asian Population Network (APN)
Alone among the major world regions, Asia does not have a regional population association. The Asian Population Network is a broad internet-based network of individual demographers and other population experts in the region and beyond which may serve as a precursor to a new regional association. The nucleus of the APN is formed by IUSSP members in Asia. The APN will also act as a conduit for the dissemination of research and information on population matters and will be an important source for the recruitment of experts and participants to expert meetings and for specialised training courses. APN is based at the Asian MetaCentre for Population and Sustainable Development Research, housed at National university of Singapore.
Global Science Panel on Population and Environment
The goal of the IUSSP Global Science Panel on Population and Environment is to prepare a scientific state-of-the-art assessment about the role and incorporation of the population focus in sustainable development and to build a substantive bridge between the Rio and Cairo processes. The Panel, organised by IUSSP, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), and the United Nations University (UNU), is under the joint patronage of Maurice Strong and Nafis Sadik and consists of 20-25 distinguished scientists from different relevant disciplines. The Panel's mode of operation will follow the example of a uS-NAS Panel with the following differences: It will have a truly international basis, will be interdisciplinary, and aims at producing direct substantive input to the Johannesburg 2002 summit.
To read the Global Science Panel Statement, click here