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Home > Activities > Conferences > uAPS Third African Conference

uAPS Third African Conference
Durban, 6-10 December 1999

General Information about the Conference:
http://www.undp.org/popin/regional/africa/uaps/union1.htm
or Martin BANGHA
IOC Conference Secretariat
uAPS, B.P. 21007 Dakar Ponty
Dakar, Sénégal
Tel: (221) 825 59 51
Fax: (221) 825 59 55
E-mail: uepa@cyg.sn

IUSSP Formal Session N°33
"The Demographic Transition: from Where to Where?"

Contact: Jacques Vallin, INED, 133 Boulevard Davout, 75020 Paris, France
Tel:  33-1-56062106
Fax:: 33-1-56062199
vallin@ined.fr

Outline

During the second half of the 20th century, population studies were largely influenced by the concept of demographic transition, the main key to interpreting current changes and to lead the reflection on the future of populations. When, after World War Two, Europe and Northern America reached the last stage of their transition, Southern countries entered into the process en masse. While, at the end of the 1970s, the latter were themselves succeeding in controlling their population growth, the Population Division of the uN founded its new set of population projections on the hypothesis of a generalisation of the achievement of the transition, leading to the global stabilisation of the world population. On the eve of the 21st century (the century which is supposed to be that of general stabilisation), it seems very useful to draw a comprehensive view of this major event of human history, by answering two series of fundamental questions.

The first objective is indeed to make the point, synthetically, on every major question concerning the facts as well as the validity of their interpretation through the transition concept. What was the past demographic regime? When did the transition begin? How did it work? Did mortality decline come first everywhere? What were the causes of sanitary improvements? What were the means to control fertility? What were the relations between these demographic changes and political, economical, social, cultural changes? In all these aspects, the aim is here to summarise the facts but also to list the main theses, those which were approved by a large scientific consensus and those which are still in debate.

The second objective is to discuss the use of the concept of transition as a basis for demographic projections: what will happen during the 21st century and what may happen thereafter? Is there only one historical transition, the one that we are experiencing? Is it necessary, on the contrary, to anticipate new transitions? To what extent do the national and international statistical institutions use the concept of transition to project populations? Should we imagine other perspectives? What are the main problems that future demographic research needs to pay attention to?

Two main papers will be presented, the first by Massimo Livi Bacci on the European transition (Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand), and the second by Ahmed Bahri on the transition in Southern countries (Asia, Latin America, Africa). Each will try to answer all these questions but, as far as Southern countries are concerned, it will be interesting to deal with an additional question: has their demographic transition been influenced by the European experience? To what extent have mortality and/or fertility declined under Northern influence or autonomously? And, also, is the current Northern situation a useful reference to project Southern populations, or is it better to assess the latter only on the extrapolation of the past trends observed in these countries?

These two solicited papers will be usefully echoed by contributed papers focusing more specifically on the past, on the future, on different aspects of the transition theory, or on one specific country or population.