IUSSP Scientific Panel on Historical Demography

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IUSSP Scientific Panel on Historical Demography

Call for papers

Call for Papers

International Seminar on
Demographic Responses to Sudden Economic and Environmental Change

Kashiwa, Chiba, JAPAN
21-23 May 2009

Organized by the IUSSP Scientific Panel on Historical Demography
in cooperation with Reitaku University, the Population Association of Japan,
and the Centre for Economic Demography, Lund University

This seminar will examine the effects of sudden or unexpected economic and environmental change on the demographic behavior of individuals and families. Such changes may be social, political, or economic in origin, stemming for example from financial crises, food price fluctuations, harvest failure, regime change, or war. Alternatively they may be associated with natural disasters, stemming from tsunami, flooding, hurricanes, and earthquakes. Responses differ because while some changes were very rare and almost impossible to prepare for, others were common enough to plan for. We invite papers that examine how community, household, family and individual characteristics conditioned the effects of sudden external changes and led to demographic responses that varied not only across regions or communities, but within them as well.

The influence of various forms of sudden economic and environment change is already well-documented in contemporary and historical empirical studies. For example, based on numerous studies of aggregated data from preindustrial populations, we know that economic fluctuations, as reflected in short-term changes in food prices, influenced demographic behavior, particularly fertility, but also mortality and migration (Galloway 1988; Lee 1981, 1990; for an overview see Bengtsson and Reher 1998). Contemporary financial crises, economic uncertainty, climatic fluctuations, and natural disasters all influence social and demographic outcomes, though response patterns are diverse, varying by time and place (Henry et al. 2004; Pörtner 2008; Thomas and Frankenberg 2006).

Response patterns that appear similar from a comparison of aggregated data may conceal great diversity within and across societies in patterns of demographic responses to short-term changes in economic conditions. For example, evidence suggests that even when the magnitude of mortality responses to economic conditions in different populations appeared similar, underlying patterns of responses by socioeconomic status, household composition, and individual context were diverse (Bengtsson, Campbell, Lee et al. 2004; Bengtsson and Saito 2000).

The diversity of responses reflects the multiplicity of options available to households and individuals. The precise configuration of available options depends not only on economic structure as well as social and cultural context, but also on household and individual characteristics. Some options are explicitly demographic, including delaying or foregoing marriage or childbearing. Some options were not specifically demographic, but affected demographic outcomes indirectly. Reductions in consumption, for example, may increase mortality risks. Short-term migration could reduce fertility by increasing spousal separation. Reduced savings, meanwhile, might have implications years later, by causing a delay in marriage, or reducing living standards during retirement.

Advances in data and methods allow for more detailed examination and comparison of demographic responses to economic and environmental pressure. Application of combined event-history and time-series techniques to newly constructed databases of longitudinal, individual- and household-level data allow for demographic responses to changing economic conditions to be differentiated by community context, household composition, and individual socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. While this approach has been pursued most extensively for historical populations by participants in the Eurasia Project on Population and Family History (Bengtsson, Campbell and Lee et al 2004), it is amenable to application in a number of other recently constructed historical datasets based on household registers, family reconstitutions, genealogies, and other sources (e.g. Engelen and Wolf 2005; Chuang et al. 2006), as well as contemporary datasets generated by panel surveys and administrative registration systems.

Application of new methods such as combined event-history and time-series analysis to novel historical and contemporary datasets with individual level information should yield new insight into the processes by which economic and environmental pressure translate into changes in demographic behavior. Accordingly, papers are sought that make use of contemporary or historical micro-data to examine demographic responses to sudden economic and environmental changes, assess the role of individual, household, and community characteristics in conditioning the response, and relate patterns to the individual and household options and choices in response to such external changes. Papers that compare the influences of such changes on multiple demographic outcomes are especially welcome, as are papers that make explicit comparisons across time or region, or across various types of sudden external change operating at different levels.

Submission procedure:
The IUSSP Scientific Panel on Historical Demography invites researchers in the field to submit a 200-word abstract (and if the author(s) wish, a complete manuscript, which must be unpublished) before 1 November 2008.

Submissions must be made online on the IUSSP website

Online Submissions

Abstracts and papers must be submitted in English only and the working language at the meeting is English.

For co-authored papers, make sure to include the names of co-authors in the abstract. The submission should be made by the co-author who will attend the meeting. Please note that we will only consider unpublished work that is not intended for publication elsewhere.

The seminar will be limited to approximately 12-15 papers.
Applicants will be notified whether their paper has been accepted by 1 December 2008.
In the case of acceptance on the basis of an abstract, the completed paper must be uploaded on the IUSSP website by 20 April 2009.

We intend to publish a selection of the papers as an edited volume or a special issue of a journal. Papers to be included in the resulting publication will be selected after the meeting, and authors may be asked to carry out revisions. Papers will also be made accessible to the membership of the IUSSP at a restricted site.

Thanks to support from Reitaku University and other sources, we will be able to cover the local expenses for one author per paper. Additional co-authors who would like to attend to will be responsible for their own local expenses. All participants are responsible for their own travel expenses.

For further information, please contact Satomi Kurosu (skurosu@reitaku-u.ac.jp).

Organizing Committee:
Satomi Kurosu, Reitaku University, Japan
Tommy Bengtsson, Lund University, Sweden
Cameron Campbell, University of California Los Angeles, USA

REFERENCES
Bengtsson, Tommy, Cameron Campbell and James Z. Lee et al. 2004. Life Under Pressure: Mortality and Living Standards in Europe and Asia, 1700-1900. Cambridge, MA.: MIT Press.
Bengtsson, Tommy and David Reher. 1998. “Short and Medium Term Relations Between Population and Economy.” In Debates and Controversies in Economic History. Proceedings of the Twelfth International Economic History Congress, ed. C-E. Núñez. Madrid: Fundación Ramón Areces e Fundación Fomento de la Historia Económica.
Bengtsson, Tommy and Osamu Saito (eds.) 2000. Population and Economy: From Hunger to Modern Economic Growth. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Chuang, Ying-chang, Theo Engelen, and Arthur P. Wolf (eds.) 2006. Positive or Preventive? Reproduction in Taiwan and the Netherlands, 1850-1940. Life at the Extremes Volume II, Amsterdam: Aksant Academic Publishers.
Engelen, Theo and Arthur P. Wolf (eds.) 2005. Marriage and the Family in Eurasia Perspectives on the Hajnal Hypotheses. Life at the Extremes Volume I, Amsterdam: Aksant Academic Publishers.
Galloway, Patrick R.1988. “Basic Patterns in Annual Variations in Fertility, Nuptiality, Mortality, and Prices in Pre-industrial Europe.” Population Studies 42:275–303.
Henry, Sabine, Bruno Schoumaker and Cris Beauchemin 2004 “The Impact of Rainfall on the First Out-Migration: A Multi-level Event-History Analysis in Burkina Faso.” Population&Environment 25(5)：423-460
Lee, Ronald D. 1981. “Short-term Variation: Vital Rates, Prices and Weather.” In The Population History of England, 1541–1871. A Reconstruction, by Edward A. Wrigley, and Roger S. Schofield. London: Edward Arnold, 356–401.
Lee, Ronald D. 1990. “The Demographic Response to Economic Crises in Historical and Contemporary Populations.” Population Bulletin of the United Nations 20:1–15.
Pörtner, Claus C. 2008. "Gone with the Wind? Hurricane Risk, Fertility and Education." Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=936034
Thomas, Duncan and Elizabeth Frankenberg 2006. “Household Responses to the Financial Crisis in Indonesia: Longitudinal Evidence on Poverty, Resources and Well-being.” California Center for Population Research On-Line Working Paper Series CCPR-056-05.