The Changing Role of Science in World Population Conferences

The relative roles of scientists, governments, and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have changed significantly over the course of the history of the decennial World Population Conferences, which are the key events in international population matters. The first uN- sponsored World Population Conference (Rome, 1954) was officially co-organised by the IUSSP and had a strong scientific component. Twenty years later (Bucharest, 1974), sharp North-South differences of opinion over family planning policy matters dominated the discourse, and government representatives became the central figures in the process. Another twenty years later (Cairo, 1994), NGOs gained prominence by playing an important role in partly overcoming the North-South divide and shifting the emphasis of policy discussions to individual reproductive rights and health. For the most part, demographers and scientists from other relevant disciplines remained in the background, some of them serving as advisors in their national delegations. But the scientific community as such was submerged under a myriad of NGOs. One consequence of this was that while the Cairo Programme of Action elaborated on the ethical, cultural and gender equity principles of the population policies, it paid less attention to the demographic, economic and sustainable human development ramifications of these policies. Given the current rapid pace of demographic changes in many parts of the world and the fact that the implications of these changes on individual and societal welfare are still poorly understood, it seems appropriate to re-emphasize the role of scientific analysis.

The Importance of Scientific Analysis in Informing International Policy

The process of formulating international policy statements is necessarily informed by a wide array of considerations, including ethical, cultural and ideological principles. Yet scientific analysis is an indispensable basis for any solid policy, providing, among other things: Accurate information about current conditions and recent demographic and social trends. Scientific methods are a key tool in producing, assessing and resolving conflicts over such information. Assessments of what is known about the past determinants and future projections of trends and conditions. Recognising uncertainty and the limits of knowledge about the factors influencing population-related trends is as important as understanding what is known. Assessments of the possible consequences of trends and conditions. The social, economic, and environmental consequences of demographic trends remain important considerations in population policy. The potential importance of interactions and feedbacks emphasises the need for careful analysis. An evaluation of the possible consequences of alternative population policies. Alternative scenarios need to be defined and simulations be carried out before implementation of policies. An evaluation of the implications of contemporary macro conditions and changes on population policies, processes, and parameters. Such an ongoing evaluation is particularly important in the context of the rapid and often uncontrollable process of globalisation that links groups and regions in completely unanticipated ways today.

Science has already provided much information relevant to population policy. For example, the basic principles of population dynamics (such as the momentum of population growth) are increasingly recognised by policy makers; in addition, extensive demographic surveys in most countries of the world have greatly improved the understanding of the determinants of fertility and health over the past two decades. However, there are still important gaps in knowledge, particularly on the interactions between demographic and economic factors and on the role of the population variable in environmental change. Moreover, existing scientific insights have not always found their way into the political arena. Better channels of communication need to be established.

The Contribution of the IUSSP: A Series of Debates, Focused Scientific Reports, and a Comprehensive State-of-the-Art Assessment

The IUSSP, as the primary international professional organisation of population scientists, is in the position of being able to make an important contribution to the drafting of international policy agendas. Its network of population scientists from many countries and disciplines make it well suited to coordinate an increase in the research inputs into policy analyses and policy recommendations, whether on a national or international level.

Over a five-year period (1999-2003), the IUSSP plans to conduct several parallel activities that should jointly result in a thorough and new assessment of the role of the population variable in sustainable human development in different parts of the world, as well as at the global level. This assessment should provide a solid scientific basis for future population- related policies, and will involve: A series of open debates in which proponents of differing views as well as scientists from different fields meet each other and discuss controversial issues in a scholarly manner. These debates shall be documented and distributed widely. A series of short state-of-the-art reports on current knowledge on issues relevant to population and development policy. These reports would be authored by recognised experts in the field and could include a synthesis of the vast literature in areas considered important in this assessment. A series of regional workshops with a focus on the great heterogeneity of experience and outlook across regions and groups. These workshops would place special emphasis on the identification of the specific socio-cultural, economic, political, and environmental conditions of the observed past developments and of anticipated future trends. A comprehensive assessment report synthesising the most important new insights gained and with an emphasis on policy implications shall be produced and widely distributed, possibly before the next World Population Conference in 2004.

Funding for this process still needs to be raised from national and international authorities and donor agencies. It is in the interest of agencies active in the field of population to ensure that their policies are based on the best scientific understanding of the complex interactions in which the population variable is embedded, and that policies focus on likely future conditions rather than outdated experiences.

Some major concerns that need to be considered in such an assessment are:

Macro-micro linkages: Individual rights versus societal concerns

There is a clear need to reconcile policy approaches focused on the interests of individuals and those geared toward the interests of larger social units. While the state is one such unit, other important groups include the family, the larger social or kin group, the place of residence (e.g., the village or town) and society as a whole. The Cairo document argues that what is good for the individual (and for women in particular) is ultimately in the demographic and developmental interests of society as well. However, the Cairo document is less clear in acknowledging that policies derived from macro-level concerns about development or the environment can in fact promote individual interests. For example, by helping (indeed encouraging) women to have fewer births than they would normally have according to traditional norms, such policy may end up increasing women's autonomy or access to resources in ways that the Cairo conference was committed to achieving. In addition, although it is often tempting to assume a win-win situation, in which policies emphasising the good of one unit automatically benefit all other units as well, the scientific evidence suggests that this may not always be the case. The report would evaluate the implications of policies for different units of interest in order to inform the process of devising optimal strategies.

Stratified populations: Different groups need different policies

In addition to the possible divergence of interests across societal levels, interests may also diverge among different segments of the population. At the level of the individual, for example, the Cairo document focuses on gender differences and persuasively argues for focusing on the special needs of women. However, at times such a strategy may be at odds with the interests of low-income men, particularly if they are the main sources of support in families where women do not seek work for various cultural reasons. Other potential conflicts include those between the young and the old. Successful policy must acknowledge trade-offs, and this can only be achieved on the basis of solid scientific analysis derived from broad sets of empirical data.

Population balance: Considering the implications of both rapid growth and rapid ageing

For many decades international concern has tended to focus on the issue of rapid population growth at the macro level. Other demographic trends, such as rapid population ageing, were generally considered a domestic problem for specific countries. However, more and more countries are experiencing very low fertility levels, and ageing is becoming a medium-term prospect for large parts of the world population. Scientific analysis of past discontinuities suggests that social, economic and political institutions are likely to have serious problems in absorbing very rapid changes in either population size or age distribution without diminishing the welfare and/or rights of individuals. In this new situation, many of these rights may have to be reassessed or renegotiated. The notion of population balance may help to build a bridge between those studying population growth and others studying population ageing.