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Home > Activities > Committees > Urbanisation Panel on UrbanisationRethinking the Estimation and Projection of Urban and City Populations New York City, 9-10 January 2006. Faculty Room, Low Library, Columbia University See the background questions for each panel Agenda (Revision date: 5 December)
Click on the links below in the Agenda to view previous papers by the presenters.
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| Monday, January 9 | ||
| 8:30 AM Breakfast (Presenters to deposit presentations on laptop.) |
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| 9:00 AM Setting the Stage |
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| Introduction and Objectives | Hania Zlotnik UN Population Division |
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| Spatial social science | ||
| The value of city and urban projections for development | Gordon McGranahan International Institute for Environment and Development, London |
International contribution to the migration component |
| Prospects for publishing workshop findings | Mark Montgomery Population Council SUNY-Stony Brook |
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| 10:15 AM. Where Do We Stand? | Chair: Paul Cheung UN Statistics Division |
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| Lessons from the IUSSP panel on urbanization | Tony Champion University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne |
Conceptualising
and Measuring Human Settlement in the 21st Century |
| The UN Population Division Cities Database | Thomas Buettner UN Population Division |
Urban Growth in Developing Countries:A Review
of Current Trends and a Caution Regarding Existing Forecasts |
| Detecting the spatial extents of urban areas; linking extents to population | Deborah Balk Columbia University |
The Distribution of People and the Dimension of Place:
Methodologies to Improve the Global Estimation of Urban Extents Determining Global Population Distribution: Methods, Applications and Data |
| Demographic surveys and spatial linkages in models of city growth | Mark Montgomery Population Council SUNY-Stony Brook |
Cities Transformed |
| Discussion | George Martine Brazilian Population Association |
Population/Development/Environment Trends In A Globalized Context: Challenges For The 21st Century |
| 12:00 PM. Working Lunch "Informal Thoughts on Urban Population Projections" |
Introduction: Roberta Balstad CIESIN EI Advance Project Speaker: Joel Cohen Rockefeller University |
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| 1:30 PM. What Can We Learn from Remotely-Sensed Data? | Chair: Deborah Balk | |
| Optical imagery at moderate and high resolutions | Chris Small Columbia University |
Spatial analysis of global urban extent from
DMSP-OLS night lights A global analysis of urban reflectance |
| Optical imagery: Night-time lights | Chris Elvidge National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) |
Nighttime
Lights of the World: 1994-95 |
| The potential of radar | Son Ngheim, Ernesto Rodriguez Jet Propulsion Laboratory |
Global Infrastructure: The Potential of SRTM Data to Break New Ground |
| Discussion | Steve Sheppard Williams College |
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| 3:30 PM . Measuring the Components of City Growth | Chair: Mark Montgomery | |
| Small area estimates of urban fertility and mortality schedules | Renato Assuncao Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais |
Empirical
Bayes Estimation of Demographic Schedules for Small Areas A Bayesian space varying parameter model applied to estimating fertility schedules Multiple cancer sites incidence rates estimation using a multivariate Bayesian model Diffusion and prediction of Leishmaniasis in a large metropolitan area in Brazil with a Bayesian space-time model Space varying coefficient models for small area data |
| Indirect estimates of migration; the scope for multi-regional projections | James Raymer University of Southampton |
Imposing Age and Spatial Structures on Inadequate
Migration-Flow Datasets Capturing the age and spatial structures of migration |
| Regional challenges in modelling growth | Kam Wing Chan University of Washington |
Urbanization in China in the 1990s: New Definition, Different Series, and Revised Trends |
| Nature and extent of slum populations | S. ChandrasekharIndira Ghandi Institutue for Development Research, Mumbai |
Growth of Slums, Availability of Infrastructure
and Demographic Outcomes in Slums: Evidence from India |
| Discussion | Dirk Jaspers CELADE, CEPAL, UN |
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| 6:30 PM. Dinner (location TBD) | ||
| Tuesday, January 10 | ||
| 8:30 AM. Breakfast (Presenters to deposit presentations on laptop.) | ||
| 9:00 AM. New Forecasting Methods | Chair: Thomas Buettner | |
| Classical and Bayesian approaches to forecasting city populations | Mark Montgomery Population Council SUNY-Stony Brook |
Forecasting City Growth Rates in the Developing World: Illustrative Examples |
| Joint projections of urbanization and migration | Brian O'Neill IIASA |
Population
Aging and Future Carbon Emissions in the United States Demographic Determinants of Household Energy Use in the United States Conditional Probabilistic Population Projections: An Application to Climate Change A Guide to Global Population Projections Population scenarios based on probabilistic projections: An application for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment |
| Recent advances in urban forecasting | Philippe Bocquier DIAL/IRD, AFRISTAT, Mali |
World Urbanization Prospects an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with the mobility transition theory |
| Projecting the urban poor | Eduardo Moreno UN Habitat |
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| Discussion | Joel Cohen Rockefeller University |
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| 10:30 AM. Urban Projections, Poverty, and the MDGs | Chair: TBA |
Cities Transformed:Recommendations for
the Demographic and Health Surveys Cities Transformed: Looking Ahead |
| UN Statistics Division | Paul Cheung UN Statistics Division |
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| UNFPA | Rogelio Fernandez-Castilla UNFPA |
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| UN Regional Offices | Dirk Jaspers CELADE, CEPAL, UN |
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| US Census Bureau | James Fitzsimmons US Census Bureau |
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| International Census efforts | Tufuku Zuberi University of Pennsylvania |
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| Survey data providers | Livia Montana Macro International |
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| Satellite data provision and acquisition | Andy Nelson Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Italy |
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| 12:15 PM. Working Lunch Group Discussion: How to Coordinate Efforts and Resources |
Chair: Uwe Deichmann World Bank |
Automated
Census System for Densely Inhabited Districts Information-based instruments for improved urban management, Volume 1 |
| 1:30 PM. Next Steps: Publication Strategy and Follow-on Workshop | Organisers | |
| 3:00 PM. Adjourn or Opportunity for smaller side-meetings | ||
| 5:00 PM. Final adjournment | ||
| Workshop sponsored by the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, the United Nations Population Division, and the NSF-ADVANCE Project at the Earth Institute at Columbia University | ||
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