| S59 | Population change
and changes in the international order - Changement démographique et changements dans
l'ordre international |
| Organiser: | McNicoll Geoffrey The Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, New York 10017, USA Tel: +1 212/3390500 Fax: +212/7556052 Email: gmcnicoll@popcouncil.org |
| Outline: | In the 20th century, the system of
nation states, a 17th century European invention, has expanded to encompass the entire
world population. Differential economic growth has created vast inequalities across this
system, a fact that is a dominant reality in international relations. Differential
population growth has also transformed the world over the 20th century, but this fact has
thus far seemed curiously inconsequential. National governments may be interested in
population change beyond their borders, but mainly as it bears on their own interests. The
overall effects of population change on economic and political relations in the
international system have received comparatively little attention, whether from
demographers, economists or political scientists. Yet, looking ahead, the new demographic
realities are likely to require massive adaptations in other spheres. The papers in this
session would seek to repair some of the past neglect and establish links with work on
international relations. They would treat aspects of the subject such as the following: Political demography of a multipolar world: Although an "economically developed" world is still a distant prospect, the spread of high technology industries and expansion of their human-capital underpinnings, together with rapidly growing domestic markets, have turned some of the most populous developing countries into important players in the world economy. In effect, power is becoming more associated with population size, with resulting pressures for change in the international order. What does international relations theory say about the outcome? What are the demographic dimensions of the emerging system, in terms of both states and alliance structures? Population processes in international society: What patterns of social mobility can be discerned in the "society of states"? Is international migration an equilibrating force among states or a contributor to inequality? What are immigration's limits in offsetting sustained very-low fertility? Does state-formation (the "self-determination of peoples" proclaimed in the UN Charter) eventually cease or continue indefinitely? Will demographic forces promote the regional coalescing of states? Is there an enduring underclass of states? Demographics of "global civil society": UN declarations envisage a global human rights regime. There is talk of an emerging global civil society--a cosmopolitan future in which national governments have an attenuated role and transnational institutions and actors a much greater one. Globalisation arguments posit growing uniformities in aspirations and consumption patterns--a "world middle class" transcending states--and new sources of differentiation. Population statistics have developed along with the state, as an element of public administration. How should global civil society be demographically characterised? Global environmental issues: Based on present knowledge, what if any environmental contingencies warrant consideration in assessing international demographic futures? Conversely, how should demography enter international environmental debate? For instance, how should population size be treated in allocating access to a global commons, such as in setting levels of greenhouse gas emissions? |