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Directory Profile

Patrick Gerland

Chief, Pop Estimates & Projection section
United Nations
Country of residence:
United States

Nationality: France
Gender: M

Member since: 2021
Membership No: 21493
Membership Type: regular

Field of Study: Computer Science, Demography, Public Health/ Epidemiology, Sociology, Statistics

Specialization: Age and Sex Structure, Data Collection and Processing, Estimates and Projections, Fertility, Historical Demography, Mortality, Health, and Longevity, Spatial Analysis (and Geographic Information), Urbanization

Regional focus: Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East and North Africa (MENA), South Asia, Southeast Asia

Education: Doctorate (Ph.D, MD) , 2006 , Princeton University , Demography

Working languages: English , French

Other association membership in population or related fields: Population Association of America (PAA), Union for African Population Studies (UAPS)

Professional web page:

Curriculum Vitae:

Professional Summary:

Chief of the Mortality section since Sept. 2014, and for the past decade senior analyst in UN Population Division. Research interests focuses on mortality analysis, demographic estimation and projections, especially in Africa and Asia. Strong interest in the development of new methodology and collaborates with academic research groups in improving the estimation of adult mortality and incorporating uncertainty in demographic modeling, population reconstruction and probabilistic projections. After completing graduate studies in Sociology and Demography in Paris, I worked in urban regional planning. During 1989-99, I worked for the Technical Cooperation Unit of the UN Statistics Div. providing technical training and assistance in over 30 countries in Africa & Asia. I hold a DESS d’expert démographe from the University of Paris and a PhD in Population Studies from Princeton University. Over the years, (co)authored 16 articles, 15 working papers or book chapters, and 35 conference papers, and served as referee for 20+ demographic and public health journals.

  • Gerland, P., Raftery, A. E., Ševčíková, H., Li, N., Gu, D., Spoorenberg, T., ... Wilmoth, J. (2014). "World population stabilization unlikely this century". Science, 346(6206), 234-237. doi: 10.1126/science.1257469
  • Gerland, P. (2014). "UN Population Division's Methodology in Preparing Base Population for Projections: case study for India". Asian Population Studies, 10(3), 1-30. doi: 10.1080/17441730.2014.947059
  • Li, N., R. Lee, and P. Gerland (2013). “Extending the Lee-Carter Method to Model the Rotation of Age Patterns of Mortality Decline for Long-Term Projections”. Demography, 50:2037–2051. doi:10.1007/s13524-013-0232-2
    Raftery, A. E., N. Li, H. Ševčíková, P. Gerland, and G. K. Heilig (2012). “Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(35), 13915-13921. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1211452109
    Guillot, M., P. Gerland, F. Pelletier, and A. Saabneh (2012). “Child Mortality Estimation: A Global Overview of Infant and Child Mortality Age Patterns in Light of New Empirical Data”. PLoS Medecine, 9(8), e1001299. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001299
    Dionne, K.Y., P. Gerland, S. Watkins (2011). “AIDS Exceptionalism: Another Constituency Heard From." AIDS and Behavior, 1-7 ; doi: 10.1007/s10461-011-0098-5
    Gerland, P., D.M. Vu, S. Kohút and K. Irová (2000). “Applications of geographical and statistical databases for population activities: some strategies and experiences.” The Journal of Cities and Regions, SCORUS, GIS special - November 2000. ISSN 1568-167X. pp. 63-75.